Braves, Schmraves!

In trying to justify the shellacking taken to Cole Hamels and Roy Halladay the past two days, I've come to the following conclusion: The Braves are only slightly better than the Astros. Hear me out...

The all time single season mark for batting strikeouts by a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks. They had Mark Reynolds (211 Ks)... And finished 65-97 and dead last in the NL West. They recorded 4,343 outs in 2010 meaning 35.2% of their outs were strikeouts.

The Astros opened the season on the road in a three game series in which they struck out a total of 43 times. They batted in each of their 9 innings of play for a total of 81 outs made. Therefore, 43/81 or 53% of their outs were made via punch out. They are largely considered one of the worst teams in baseball and are projected to lose 100 games this year.

The Braves opened their season at home with two wins in which they struck out a total of 24 times. They have not batted in the 9th inning of either game, meaning they have only created 48 outs this season. 50% of their outs so far are via K and neither starter they have faced has made it more than 5 innings. Tonight they face one of only 13 pitchers in baseball to record 200 strikeouts last season.

Are the Braves winning in spite of themselves? Maybe. Will they race the Astros to the worst K numbers in baseball history? Probably. Am I scraping the bottom of the barrel here to find something to smile about in the NL East even though it's a ridiculously small sample size? Definitely.

The Definitive 2013 Phillies Prediction Post

It seems like only yesterday that the truck was packed and on its way to Clearwater... mostly because the last thing I wrote was a few days after said truck had arrived. 15 cases of gum, a pallet of Powerade, and virtually no injuries later the team is about to head north and embark on the 162 game journey that is a MLB season. Me? I still have two fantasy baseball teams to draft, a slowpitch softball season to prepare for, and a baseball-themed baby's room to finish before May 24th (we're naming him Chase, and yes it's exactly what you think).

But I would be remiss if I didn't dedicate a few moments to put virtual pen to paper and document my Phillies predictions for the year. This way when I'm right I look like the baseball Nostradamus, and when I'm wrong I can click delete and pretend this never happened. I was about 6 for 15 last year so obviously I know what I'm talking about...

That said, I present to you, the DroppedStrikeThree.com definitive list of Phillies predictions for 2013:

•  92 Wins. Hear me out on this one before you click back on your browser! The Phillies won 81 games last season. Their bullpen blew 27 games last year, up from 18 in 2011. You HAVE to assume the bullpen won't be THAT bad again. The lineup leaves Clearwater in tact, healthy, and arguably stronger than it ended last season. The team compiled a 35-24 record over August, September, and October. Projected over an entire season, that's good enough for 96 wins... I don't think it's a stretch to say that the bullpen will close out a few more Cliff Lee gems, a healthy Howard/Utley in April-May is worth a couple more wins than Wigginton/Galvis, and wet mop can perform better at the plate than Placido Polanco did in 2011. 11 more wins is very reasonable and likely enough to sneak into the playoffs.

• Chase Utley signs virtually the same exact contract as Jimmy Rollins (3 yr/ $33M) by the time the season is through. Two things to consider here: 1) Chase is still a fan favorite despite his decrepit knees and declining batting average. Every indication is that he wants to play a few more years and more importantly he wants to stay put. 2) There are few if any other options out there. Freddy Galvis can field, but his strikeout numbers this Spring are Dan Uggla-esque. The 2014 market consists of Robinson Cano (likely to be resigned), Ben Zobrist ($7M team option that's a no brainer), and a dozen middle aged replacement level players. Walking in the footsteps of Rollins only makes sense for Utley and the Phillies.

• Delmon Young plays fewer innings in right field than either John Mayberry Jr. or Laynce Nix. I genuinely love when the Phillies throw a few bucks at a former first rounder and cross their fingers that they can re-spark the magic. I loved when they gave Matt Anderson a bullpen shot in the spring of 2011, I want to see Joe Savery succeed whether it be as an outfielder or a pitcher or wherever else he can stick, and I'm always crossing my fingers that a Mark Prior comeback attempt will lead to another 245 strikeout season. It's like rooting for the big dog, turned underdog. Unfortunately, Delmon Young is just a dog.

• Ender Inciarte revives the frustrating tradition of keeping a Rule 5 guy on the roster all season long. David Herndon in 2010, Michael Martinez on 2011. The Phillies have tried to catch lightning in same bottle that snagged Shane Victorino in 2004. Inciarte fits a similar mold. While Darin Ruf is raking at AAA for the first two months of the season and balls aren't quite flying out of Citizens Bank Park at the same rate they're leaving Brighthouse Field this Spring, we'll all be pulling our hair out watching Inciarte ground into double plays like a young Wilson Valdez. As far as I can tell, Ender Inciarte's only discernible skill is speed on the bases which could have been had by keeping Juan Pierre around for $1M and change. Instead, the Phillies will march out Inciarte in painful pinch hitting ABs late in close games and we'll go bonkers.

• 37 Home runs for The Big Piece. I think Charlie made a smart move earlier this spring in playing Ryan Howard for something like 15 consecutive days; test those legs right from the start. Howard seems to have passed with flying colors. His bombs this spring aren't garden variety wall skimmers off minor league pitching. He took Craig Kimbrel opposite field to the Tiki Bar and he's dumped more than one out along Rt 19 in right field. I won't lie to you... .260 is about the ceiling on batting average for Ryan Howard's batting average. With season long interleague play, Howard should be able to take a fair amount of days off from the field while keeping his bat in the middle of the lineup. 

• The Braves set a new single season record for team strikeouts. Not the good kind done by their pitchers (who should be pretty impressive in their own right) either. This prediction has nothing to do with the Phillies, I just find it awesome. Take a free swinging team that went down 1,289 times last season: Deduct two incredibly patient guys in Chipper Jones and Martin Prado and replace them with the 300 K's the Upton brothers will yield. Juan Francisco full time at third base and the departed Michael Bourn will be close to a wash. The single season record for a team is 1,529 by the 2010 Diamondbacks (lost 97 games that year, just sayin...).  Washington and Philadelphia were #2 and #3 in pitching K's last season and that includes a Stephen Strasburg shut down. 1,530 is well within the Braves' grasp this season.

• #9 Domonic Brown All Star jerseys are your top selling Phillies jersey of the year. Not to say he's going to break out into the next Ken Griffey Jr. he was projected to be back in 2011, but far less talented players have rode a spring wave of HRs into an All-Star appearance (See: LaHair, Bryan in 2012). When Brown has 14 homers by the middle of June, fans will be building statues to honor the miraculous work performed by Wally Joyner in fixing Brown's swing. I see Dom Brown as exactly the type of player who can use a hot spring as a confidence boost and roll those numbers into the start of the regular season. And as mismanaged as he may have been for the past two years, there's a piece of land reserved for him in left or right field by default whether he succeeds right away or not. It certainly wouldn't be the first time Phillies fans stuffed a ballot box for a player that may or may not deserve the trip to an All-Star game. Considering the game will be held only about 100 miles up the turnpike, fans will have even more incentive to vote.

• This year's Vance Worley (and J.A. Happ before him) will be Adam Morgan. By that I mean non-prospect in early 2012 to big time contributor in 2013. Let's face it, John Lannan is probably more like the 4 IP/14 H/ 12 ER guy we saw last week than the guy who had only given up 5 runs in 14 innings previously. Jessie Biddle is the top prospect and Tyler Cloyd is the hot hand coming off a 15-1 season at AA/AAA, but Morgan is the guy with the best shot to help the Phillies this year. His command was on point last year averaging over a K per inning and 4.33 K/BB ratio over two levels last season. His appearances this spring were more of the same. Once the inevitable injury, or more likely a John Lannan/Kyle Kendrick implosion occurs, look for Morgan to make the most of his call. I'm even thinking something like 11 Wins and a top 5 Rookie of the Year candidate (similar to Worley/Happ/Kendrick).

• Charlie's back, Sandberg finds greener pastures. We know two things: 1) Charlie Manuel isn't ready to hang it up. 2) Ryne Sandberg is as eager as a kid on Christmas morning to land a head coaching job. If the Phillies have the successes I think they're going to have in 2013, it would be virtually impossible to let Manuel walk. Win 82 games and the job is all but a sure thing. Win 90 and it's a Vegas lock. Unfortunately I just don't see Sandberg sticking around another 2-3 years as Third Base coach and I have a sneaking suspicion that there will be some enticing vacancies with rebuilding teams in 2014. Maybe there's another job as "Advisor to the General Manager" that Ruben Amaro can create and keep Charlie around the front office?

Opportunity Cost

You can never have too much pitching... Except when you do.

One of the biggest achilles heels facing the Phillies this past season was relief pitching. Cliff Lee waited until July for his first win in large part due to shotty bullpen work. In total, the Phillies managed to blow an impressive 12 games when leading after 8 innings. Finishing 7 games out, it's obvious that cutting that number drastically was Ruben Amaro Jr's priority number one. But every veteran signing comes with a cost.

The Phillies carry 22 pitchers on their 40 Man Roster. They've invited another 8 to Spring Training. A typical Major League Roster carries 11-12 pitchers on the 25 Active Roster. See the log-jam yet? Now factor in the first 5 of those 12 spots go to Starting Pitchers:

1. Cole Hamels
2. Roy Halladay
3. Cliff Lee
4. Kyle Kendrick
5. John Lannan

Now one spot goes to your closer:

6. Jonathan Papelbon

Now you add in your newly signed setup man, last year's setup guy, and the old/reliable veteran you picked up on the cheap last week:

7. Mike Adams
8. Antonio Bastardo
9. Chad Durbin

That leaves you two, maybe three bullpen spots. With a Roy Halladay coming off a series of injuries that rendered him a shell of himself last year, and a back end of the rotation that includes a ticking time bomb in Kendrick and a guy who spent nearly all of 2012 in the minor leagues in Lannan, you have to assume that at least one of your pitchers will need to be a long man capable of throwing multiple innings.

10. Tyler Cloyd (the most likely suitor)

You're left with 1 or 2 specialty bullpen jobs for one of the following:

• Phillippe Aumont - former 1st rounder who pitched respectable in the bigs last year (24)
• Justin De Fratus - pitched to a 2.10 ERA across 3 levels of the minors in 2012 and well in his brief time in the majors (25)
• Michael Stutes - A roster mainstay in 2011 who battled injury in 2012 (26)
• Michael Schwimer - tall, hard throwing righty. (26)
• Jake Diekman - 11.5 K/9 last season with the Phillies (26)
• Jeremy Horst - 11.5 K/9 and a 1.15 ERA in 2012 with the Phillies (27)
• Ethan Martin - High upside stuff that the Phillies gave up Shane Victorino for (23)
• Justin Friend - Only one earned run and 24/24 in save chances for Reading last season (26)
• Adam Morgan - One of the top prospects in the organization who kicked it up in 2012 (23)

What is the common theme amongst these guys? They're all 23 or older with most of them on the downside of their second decade on the planet. The majority of them have seen major league time. When a player, specifically a guy pegged as a low end starter or relief pitcher, hits his late twenties his chances of being anything but a journeyman or career Quadruple A guy become slim. You can count the guys who have become elite relievers without a regular job by the time they're 26 on one hand. 

While the 34 year old Mike Adams (who had a rib removed in the offseason) and the 35 year old Chad Durbin (league average) may have came to the Phillies with low price tags, I can't help but be concerned with the opportunity cost they incur by preventing any one of the live arms mentioned above from seeing significant time with the big club. Now it's likely that injuries and bullpen shuffling lead to most of these guys spending a few weeks in the Majors, you have to wonder if that shuffling doesn't set back their progression even further.

In short, I'll take the unproven potential over the known mediocrity (Durbin) every day of the week. Especially when that talent is mid 20s and perhaps battling for their last chance to be a serious MLB player.

Range.

Super grainy Chase Utley picture of the day!

February 12th and he's already moving to his left... All aboard the Chase Utley train to MVP!

The Latest In Phillies Art Work

Nothing takes your mind off a 7-8 9th inning walk off loss like fine art (and excessive amounts of alcohol if you're off on Monday!) I'm a classy guy so I know a thing of two about the finer things in life. I also happen to have a birthday coming up... just saying...

(Warning: I know absolutely nothing about the artists or the sites selling their work. I'm just a really good googler.):

A print of an acrylic piece by Britt Miller with the Phanatic perched atop City Hall overlooking the skyline.

A print of a pencil piece by Chris DelVecchio of the Phanatic doing a signature belly bump.

A print of a pen/ink/watercolor work by Robert Myers showing 2008 World Series MVP in action.

A mixed-media work  by Paul Van Scott with baseballs making up an old school Phillies logo

A print of a pencil drawing by Juliana Dube of the CBP facade from Pattison Ave.

A print of an oil painting by David Courson of Roy Halladay dominating.